Cory Morgan: How Will Canada’s US Negotiations Amid Tariff Threats Shape Up in 2025?

The Canadian crystal ball is as muddy as it gets in predicting who will lead Canada through 2025.

One certainty, though, is that a top priority for Canada’s prime minister will be dealing with incoming U.S. President Donald Trump firmly while managing to avoid a trade war. Who is better placed to negotiate with the new American administration? Or perhaps the question is, who will be leading Canada through 2025—Trudeau, an interim Liberal leader, or Poilievre (if an early election is called)?

Donald Trump has never made a secret of his support for trade protectionism. He has always campaigned on an America-first platform, and imposing tariffs upon incoming goods has been his preferred tactic. When Trump threatens tariffs as high as 25 percent across the board on Canadian trade goods, he must be taken seriously.

Trump is also a master negotiator who knows how to put himself in a position of strength. Although he has not formally assumed the presidency, he has deftly managed to completely overshadow the outgoing Biden administration and dominate the news cycle in Canada. He knows how to stay in the headlines and manipulate public opinion on both sides of the border. Trump’s teasing of Trudeau through social media isn’t a form of casual entertainment for himself, though he does appear to take pleasure from it. His social media postings are calculated to set Canada on its heels and keep Canadian leaders divided and confused about how to react to him.

Though his political future is tenuous at best, Justin Trudeau is still the most likely to be sitting in the prime minister’s chair when Trump is inaugurated on Jan. 20. Despite the pressure he is now facing, Trudeau has managed to stay in power for nine years.

When negotiating with provinces on federal policies, Trudeau has sometimes used manipulative tactics, and he has been successful many times. Like Trump, Trudeau often bypasses local governments and appeals to the public on policy issues. He dangles federal money for programs such as dental care and daycare, but always attaches strings to them. Provincial leaders then find themselves mousetrapped as they look heartless and overly partisan if they refuse to play ball with Trudeau. It’s an infuriating strategy, but an effective one indicating Trudeau’s governing skills may be more nuanced than he is given credit for.

Trudeau is also highly motivated. His back is against the political wall, and he desperately needs a win to try and recover political strength. His Hail Mary opportunity may be presenting itself with a trade dispute, if he can negotiate it. The odds are tough for him considering the lack of affection shown by the incoming president. Trudeau seems to have a cat-like political nine lives, though, as he has managed to slip out of numerous challenges and scandals to stay in power for nearly a decade. He can never be counted out.

Likewise, Poilievre doesn’t take slights from the media lightly or quietly. When CTV released an unfairly edited video damaging to him, he didn’t just ask for a retraction, he demanded corrective measures lest the network lose all access to him. He got his demands. The clip of Poilievre eating an apple instead of answering loaded questions from a reporter infuriated some people with its arrogance, but it also signalled to the media he won’t play ball with biased media members. It’s the sort of approach Donald Trump respects.

The other variable Canadians must consider is an interim Liberal leader trying to negotiate with Trump while a leadership race is conducted. It’s about as weak a position as Canada could be put into. Poilievre could use the lame-duck period as an opportunity to present himself as the next leader and bypass the transitional period of leadership by approaching Trump. Much like Trump has all but assumed the presidency despite Biden still technically being in charge.

The coming year will be pivotal for Canada. Trade deals can set the tone for the economy for years and must be negotiated carefully, but it’s going to be tough to negotiate anything with the national leadership being in flux. Let’s hope that whether it’s Trudeau or Poilievre or a mix of both running the nation, they bring their best game to the table. The importance of these negotiations eclipses partisanship.