Korean Peninsula, Berlin Wall of the New Cold War

Commentary

With warming Japan-South Korea relations, worsening Sino-Japan relations, and the irreconcilable Sino-U.S. confrontation, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) finds itself increasingly passive in Northeast Asia’s geopolitical landscape. Some China experts believe the Korean Peninsula is becoming the new Berlin Wall.

Korean Peninsula

Shi Shan, a senior editor of The Epoch Times, said on the June 11 episode of “Pinnacle View” that the situation on the Korean Peninsula has changed since the early 1990s.

“Before that, there were two camps: South Korea, backed by Japan and the United States, and North Korea, backed by the CCP and the former Soviet Union,” he said.

“However, with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the CCP establishing diplomatic relations with South Korea, North Korea was infuriated. It felt that its security was suddenly left unguarded. Facing South Korea with Japan and the United States behind it, North Korea’s allies abandoned it, which is why the Kim regime decided to pursue nuclear weapons at all costs.”

Mr. Shi said that China-North Korea relations deteriorated to the brink of collapse after the CCP established ties with South Korea.

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“To my knowledge, Kim Jong-il once proposed cutting diplomatic ties with the CCP and establishing ties with Taiwan, opting for a life-and-death struggle. However, after weighing all the factors, he was deemed impossible,” he said.

“Because the vast majority of North Korea’s products and industrial systems were closely linked with mainland China, it made it impossible to integrate with Taiwan … This situation created a huge knot between North Korea and the CCP. Consequently, North Korea began pursuing nuclear weapons, while the CCP consistently adhered to its public stance that the Korean Peninsula be denuclearized.”

Guo Jun, chief editor of The Epoch Times’ Hong Kong edition, believes that the CCP’s insistence is a long-term strategic goal in Chinese geopolitics.

“The reason is simple: if the Korean Peninsula possesses nuclear weapons, it directly threatens the north of China and even the entire eastern region of China,” she said on the program. “If North Korea possesses nuclear weapons, then South Korea and Japan may also consider them. Taiwan as well.”

“Looking at the map, South Korea is approximately 1000 kilometers (621 miles) away from Beijing. It would take a missile traveling at three times the speed of sound, about 20 minutes, to reach there. Japan is about the same. It’s just over 1,200 kilometers (745 miles) from southern Japan to Beijing. Taiwan is farther away, but it would still only take about 30 to 40 minutes for a missile to reach. If it’s a hypersonic missile, it could even take just 10 minutes.”

Ms. Guo noted that the United States has been able to prevent these countries from becoming nuclear states because it provides them with a nuclear umbrella.

“If North Korea possesses nuclear weapons, U.S. nuclear weapons would need to enter this region, which is also a strategic deterrent for the CCP. If these countries all possess nuclear weapons, there would be four nuclear states around Beijing, a situation unseen in the world. This would greatly worsen the geopolitical position of the CCP, so it has always pursued the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

“Later, due to the deterioration of U.S.-China relations, the CCP began to support North Korea again. This is a sneaky tactical necessity. Now we see the CCP using short-term tactics to undermine its long-term geopolitical strategy, which is a very irrational approach.”

Taiwan Becomes Sino-US Confrontation Frontline

Ms. Guo said that the CCP and the United States have a long-term strategic tacit understanding concerning the Northeast Asia issue.

“Beijing does not want nuclear weapons in this region, nor does it want the Korean Peninsula to be unified, since it doesn’t want a unified Korea that is pro-America,” she said.

“The United States, of course, does not want these countries to possess nuclear weapons either. The top priority of U.S. security strategy has always been non-proliferation and controlling weapons of mass destruction.”

Ms. Guo believes the United States doesn’t want the Korean Peninsula to be unified. “This is a bit complex because the United States is not concerned about North Korea itself in this region, but rather China and Russia. The existence of the North Korean regime is actually beneficial to the United States because it provides a reason for its military presence in the region. The United States highly relies on the U.S.-Japan-South Korea military alliance in Northeast Asia. With North Korea, this alliance becomes more stable,” according to Ms. Guo.

“Therefore, in the past few decades, the United States and China had a high degree of tacit understanding.”

“The only uncertainty is Taiwan,” she added.

“The U.S.-China establishment of diplomatic relations had an underlying agreement, which is that China would not attack Taiwan.

“Therefore, on the same day the U.S.-China Joint Communiqué [was published], China announced that it would pursue so-called peaceful reunification with Taiwan … However, at the CCP’s 19th National Congress in 2017, it set a reunification time frame, aiming to unify Taiwan within ten to 15 years with the use of all methods, including military force,” said Ms. Guo.

This is also an intra-party legitimacy need for Xi Jinping, who proposed that reunifying Taiwan is a sign of China’s rise.

“It’s at this time that the U.S. strategic view towards China has undergone a significant change, which continues to this day,” said Ms. Guo.

“In 2018, significant adjustments were seen in the strategies of the United States and China. For example, we saw [former CCP premier] Li Keqiang visiting Japan. After the THAAD crisis, the CCP quickly improved its relations with South Korea and strengthened bilateral relations with Russia.”

On the U.S. side, the Taiwan Travel Act and Taiwan Assurance Act were enacted to strengthen relations, including military relations with Taiwan.

“The U.S.-China relations started to deteriorate from then on. The CCP wanted national reunification, while the U.S. took it as the CCP using force to change the geopolitical status quo. This conflict is irreconcilable, so we can only see the bilateral relationship worsen,” Ms. Guo predicted.

U.S.-Japan-South Korea Triangle

Mr. Shi said that the relationship between Japan, the United States, and South Korea is a triangle, with the weakest side being the Japan-South Korea relationship.

“However, since South Korean President Moon Jae-in came to power, especially with the pressure from the later stages of the Trump administration, Japan-South Korea relations have seen a substantial improvement, which is also related to increased external pressure from the enemy,” according to Mr. Shi

Du Wen, the former director of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Legal Office, believes that the tension between Japan and South Korea benefits the CCP the most.

“The U.S.-Japan-South Korea alliance is the foundation of a small NATO in the Asia-Pacific, posing the biggest security challenge to the CCP. Both Japan and South Korea are frontline bastions, so the CCP is pleased to see conflicts between them,” he said.

Mr. Du attributed the fluctuation in Japan-Korea relations in recent years to four reasons: historical issues, territorial disputes, such as the Dokdo/Takeshima island dispute, trade frictions, notably Japan’s export restrictions on semiconductor materials in 2019, and domestic political factors, where nationalism influences the governments of both countries, making it difficult for either side to compromise.

Sino-Japanese Relations

Ms. Guo noted that China, Japan, and South Korea each expressed their stance separately during the recent summit.

“Among these, Sino-Japanese relations are crucial for China, perhaps second only to its relations with the United States,” she said, noting that during [former CCP leader] Deng Xiaoping’s era, there was an understanding that good Sino-Japanese relations were beneficial for both countries.

“Therefore, during China’s reform and opening up, Japan provided substantial financial and technological assistance.”

She added that the CCP is the main one to blame for the deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations.

“After the collapse of communist ideology in China, the CCP used nationalism and patriotism to consolidate its legitimacy and form a common set of values … Unfortunately, Japan became the primary target, especially after Xi came to power.”

One example is that when Shinzo Abe first became prime minister, he sought to improve relations with China. However, at the time, China frequently staged anti-Japanese protests and boycotted Japanese goods, while Xi heightened anti-Japanese sentiments in Nanjing.

“China, politically, needed Japan as an enemy. If it chose the United States, it would face a formidable foe; Taiwan and the Philippines were too small and weak to fulfill that role. Japan was quite fit and also had historical animosity… Thus, China designated Japan as its most important enemy to foster nationalist sentiments, a political consideration,” said Ms. Guo

Japanese elites, having learned from this experience, chose to strengthen themselves. The concept of the Indo-Pacific strategy emerged from this situation, which was proposed by Mr. Abe as a means of strengthening Japan.

Mr. Shi said that past opinion polls indicated a decline in Japanese favorability of China.

“As the saying goes, ‘as you sow, so shall you reap,’” he said. “When you need an enemy, you will find one.”

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.